Friday, January 12, 2007

Globalization = Infinite Opportunities

With globalization, we are moving more & more towards 1 World, 1 Market.

Yet might seem intimidating at first sight, but it does mean more prospects. Proper use of IT can land you a wealth of information, but the crux of the matter lies in PROPER ANALYSIS.

Let me shower you with some data & analysis.

You are more or less satisfied with the US market. But should you stick with it for 5 years with 90% of your portfolio invested in it? IMHO, it’s not a wise decision. It’s the market most prone to terrorist attacks, in the scale of 9/11 or even greater. Such an event would severely erode your stock values. Besides, you can factor in other stuff like major changes in foreign policy after the Dems come in 2008 + the fiscal deficit + the rise of the Euro + Chinese “flooding” + overdependancy on foreign oil + a zillion other threats, which I’ll itemize in my later blogs.

The other day, somebody asked me, “ Tamal, I’m going to buy some index mutual funds in India. You think it’s O.K. right now?” Well, this is just the wrong moment. The Indian markets going on a bit of hype right now, so I told him to wait for the next big correction. And I mean BIG. Like the SENSEX should fall to at least 11,000. It could even go below 10,000 once again. That’s stupid, you think ?

Think again. Nowhere does the maxim of Warren Buffet’s market guru Benjamin Franklin : “Mr. Market is a neurotic person” hold so true as in India.

The Chinese market seems better than the Indian market. So, as an overseas investor, should you invest in the Chinese market on a long term? Nope. Because besides being a controlled economy, remember the market’s all about PERCENTAGE OF INCREASE. China will be leveling off.

The other day somebody told me “Do you think Japan is a spent force, Mr. Mukherji?” This NRI was thinking of buying some Japanese penny stocks especially in the finance sector. He had no idea of their record forex reserves + gold reserves + their strategic real estate holdings.

Buy euro or bullion ? Which is better in a stable economy, and which is better if there is a conflict with Iran?
Buy real estate in Calcutta or the NCR?
Should you set up a textile manufacturing unit in China or in India ?
If you’re thinking of “outsourcing”, is India really the best choice or are there some other countries you still haven’t thought of?

I’ll be analyzing infinite scenarios in my later blogs.

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